Asian countries still have the potential for significant economic development over the next 25 years, but this requires the United States to accept that it is no longer the sole superpower and to maintain restraint and mutual respect with other major powers in an increasingly multipolar world, preventing geopolitical risks from jeopardizing global peace and stability.
These views were expressed by prominent American economist Jeffrey Sachs on Wednesday (October 29) at the 6th Annual Distinguished Scholars Open Lecture hosted by the Singapore Economic Society. He first pointed out that Asia's share of the global economy has increased by 20 percentage points over the past 30 years, reaching approximately 50% by 2025, and the gap in per capita income with developed Western economies has also narrowed significantly. This is because developing countries have greater room to achieve faster growth and close the gap with developed countries through better economic governance and improved education.
Looking ahead to 2050, Sachs predicts that this momentum will continue as long as the world remains peaceful and enjoys sufficient stability; however, this also means a more multipolar world.
He then shifted his tone: "Multipolarity is good news for the whole world, but Washington sees it as bad news."
Sachs said that globally, at least the United States, China, Russia, and India can be considered major powers. They all possess economic and technological strength, are nuclear-armed states, and have the potential to defeat each other in war. However, the United States remains fixated on its superpower status. "The United States is now the biggest destabilizing force in the world because it tries to maintain its virtually lost dominant position."
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He believes the root cause of the Ukraine war is the US administration's continued push for NATO expansion. "In a multipolar world, this is the source of disaster. Major powers must remain cautious, restrained, and respectful, allowing each other space."
In the Asia-Pacific region, Sachs similarly believes that "US arms deals with Taiwan will only disrupt, not protect, Taiwan. The US should send a message that Taiwan and mainland China should resolve cross-strait issues peacefully."
He warns: "Geopolitics is the primary risk. We are in the nuclear age, capable of space warfare, cyber warfare, and nuclear warfare; biological warfare may not be far off."
Sachs: Technology Can Enable Ordinary People to Face Survival Challenges
Sachs is a professor at Columbia University and director of the Center for Sustainable Development. In his speech, he pointed out that Asian countries will face a series of environmental challenges in their economic development over the next 25 years, including climate change, ecological crises, and massive pollution problems.
He believes that ASEAN should be led by its governments to accelerate the transition to zero-emission energy sources such as wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power. "This will give ASEAN a significant competitive advantage because businesses need green energy to fulfill their responsibilities."
Sachs also criticized the Trump administration for withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement based on the interests of the American oil industry, handing over the opportunity to lead the energy transition to China.
Sachs further warned that the rapid development of cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence could have a disruptive impact on social, political, and economic governance, creating uncertainty for future growth.
He said, "The future shaped by the power of artificial intelligence and robots can be either utopia or dystopia. Machines can replace most human labor, giving us more time to enjoy life, but they could also leave most people impoverished, forced to work for (American billionaire) Musk... Technology concentrates power in the hands of a very small number of people, raising serious questions about human survival."
