(New York) A New York Times commentary points out that as US President Trump's second term enters its ninth month, while he has achieved some success in pushing for increased defense spending in Europe, facilitating a ceasefire in Gaza, and securing the release of hostages, his only predictable characteristic in handling international affairs remains his reliance on personal intuition and the venting of discontent, and he has become increasingly "unpredictable."
Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security, a US think tank, said, "Trump has an instinctive sense of other countries' weaknesses and pressure points, which sometimes becomes an advantage that he uses to achieve his goals. We have seen this in the US dealings with Europe, Gaza, and the attack on Iran, but it also has its disadvantages."
Trump recently held "productive" talks with Canadian Prime Minister Carney, but soon after, he abruptly announced the termination of trade negotiations with Canada. This was because a television advertisement by the Ontario government quoted former US President Reagan's opposition to tariffs, angering Trump, who then further announced a 10% tariff increase on Canadian goods.
This month, China announced unprecedented export controls on its rare earth supply chain, prompting Trump to threaten a 100% tariff on Chinese goods. However, last Friday, while attending the ASEAN summit in Malaysia, Trump softened his tone, expressing optimism about reaching a trade agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Two days later, US and Chinese trade representatives stated that trade talks had made positive progress.
During his presidential campaign, Trump advocated reducing foreign resource investment and avoiding involvement in external conflicts. However, the US recently deployed additional troops to the Caribbean under the pretext of "anti-drug operations" and struck several drug-smuggling ships, escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela. Venezuela accuses Trump of wanting to overthrow the Maduro regime.
Further Reading
The New York Times points out that there is little indication that Trump's erratic behavior is a deliberate strategic maneuver, but rather more likely stems from impulse, emotion, and the current situation. He has repeatedly changed his stance on Ukraine, initially pledging to provide Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine before reneging on his decision.
Former US Ambassador to NATO, Ivo Daalder, says that Trump's desire to be seen as an "end-of-war" drives his diplomacy, resulting in a rollercoaster ride. "He doesn't care how the war ends, or what the consequences are; he just wants to end the war to support his Nobel Peace Prize bid."
