(London, Reuters) Global oil and gas demand may continue to grow until 2050. This forecast not only contradicts expectations of a rapid global shift to clean energy but also suggests that the world may not be able to achieve its climate goals.
In its annual World Energy Outlook report released Wednesday (November 12), the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects, based on the "current policy scenario," that oil demand will reach 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, an increase of about 13% from 2024 consumption levels. The IEA also projects that by 2035, global energy demand will increase by 90 exajoules, 15% higher than current levels.
Trump Abandons Clean Energy, Pushes for Oil and Gas Production This contrasts sharply with previous IEA forecasts. During former US President Biden's administration, the IEA predicted that global oil demand would peak within 10 years and recommended that no further investment in new oil and gas projects be necessary to achieve climate goals. However, after Trump returned to the White House, he drastically cut funding for clean energy and shifted the focus to promoting oil and gas production. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also faced harsh criticism from Trump for predicting a decline in fossil fuel demand. In July of this year, US Energy Secretary Wright even threatened to withdraw from the IEA if its operations were not reformed.
The IEA last used the "current policy scenario" for forecasting in 2019. In subsequent years, it shifted to forecasting paths that placed greater emphasis on the clean energy transition and net-zero emissions commitments. The current policy scenario considers only current government policies, not the visions or commitments made by countries based on climate goals.
The new report also indicates a surge in final investment decisions for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in 2025. By 2030, approximately 300 billion cubic meters of new LNG export facilities will be operational annually, marking a 50% increase in available supply.
Further Reading
Under current policy scenarios, driven by the growth in electricity demand due to the development of data centers and artificial intelligence, the global LNG market size will expand from approximately 560 billion cubic meters in 2024 to 880 billion cubic meters in 2035, and will reach 1.02 trillion cubic meters in 2050.
