(AFP, Tokyo) Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has maintained high approval ratings in polls since taking office, but analysts believe her honeymoon period could end quickly if the current dispute between Japan and China escalates and she fails to control inflation.
Takaichi, Japan's first female prime minister, met with US President Trump a week after taking office, attended the ASEAN summit in Malaysia, and then the APEC meeting in South Korea, where she met with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Everything seemed amicable, but later, in a speech to the Diet, she stated that Taiwan's "state of emergency" could threaten Japan's survival, hinting at military intervention.
The Chinese government advised its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan. Chinese tourists, with their strong spending power, are Japan's largest source of visitors, and this blow is particularly severe. China subsequently reinstated its ban on Japanese seafood imports.
Scholars point out that China could punish Japan by restricting rare earth exports to Japan or restricting Japanese exports to China. Esteves Abbe, an analyst at Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Economics, points out that China still "holds many economic bargaining chips to punish Japan, while Japan has none."
A Yomiuri Shimbun poll this week shows that the Takashima cabinet's approval rating is as high as 72%, and even her handbags are bringing a steady stream of orders to a 145-year-old Japanese leather goods company.
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However, Harris, an analyst at the Japan Foresight Institute, doubts how long Kaohsiung's approval rating can be maintained, stating that "the strong support she has gained does not necessarily translate into strong support for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)."
He said, "In the short term, tensions with China have benefited her, or at least not harmed her… but some within the LDP worry that continued tensions could put pressure on her."
Esteves-Abbe said, "Challenging a stronger opponent without any prior planning is simply not leadership."
