(Reuters) - Global companies are pricing in as much as $35 billion (S$45 billion) in U.S. tariff costs in their third-quarter financial reports, but many are revising back their initial cost forecasts as U.S. President Donald Trump has reached new trade deals with some countries, mitigating the impact. Trump's trade war has pushed U.S. tariffs to their highest levels since the 1930s, and he has frequently threatened more. But overall, the uncertainty that once stalled many businesses is dissipating, allowing management to better estimate costs and plan, including modest price increases. A Reuters analysis of hundreds of company statements, regulatory filings, and earnings calls between July 16 and September 30 shows that companies expect a combined financial hit from tariffs of $21 billion to $22.9 billion in 2025 and nearly $15 billion in 2026. The combined tariff costs of over $35 billion for both years are slightly higher than the $34 billion estimated in May. However, this trend masks a shift: the increase is primarily due to Japan's Toyota raising its estimate to $9.5 billion. With Trump reaching lower-tariff trade deals with the EU and Japan, many companies are revising down their worst-case scenario forecasts. Stellantis CEO Filosa revealed in mid-October, "The tariff situation is becoming increasingly clear.
We believe tariffs will become another variable in the business equation, and we need to be prepared for it." Stellantis warned in July that US tariffs would cost €1.5 billion by 2025. Wilson, Deputy Secretary-General of the International Chamber of Commerce, said, "I think there's a general sense that we've reached a relatively stable stage after some bilateral trade agreements... but we will continue to face greater complexity and significant uncertainty." A typical example is Trump's suggestion in early October that he might impose a further 100% tariff on China, but he reversed course seven days later, saying such a proposal was unsustainable and blaming Beijing for the latest tensions in trade negotiations between the two countries. The companies hardest hit by tariffs are mostly those that rely on countries that have not yet signed trade agreements with the United States. American sportswear brand Nike, heavily reliant on Vietnamese and other Asian suppliers, raised its tariff impact from $1 billion to $1.5 billion at the end of September. Tefal's SEB lowered its profit outlook, citing factors such as tariffs and weakening demand as consumers turned to a wait-and-see approach. Fast fashion leader H&M warned that US import tariffs would further squeeze its profits in the quarter ending November.
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